Interplay of the Dollar, Gold and Oil [PREMIUM]
What is the interplay among investable proxies for the U.S. dollar, gold and crude oil? Do changes in the value of the dollar lead those in hard assets? To investigate, we relate the return series of...
View ArticleGold Timing Strategies [PREMIUM]
Are there any gold trading strategies that reliably beat buy-and-hold? In their April 2018 paper entitled “Investing in the Gold Market: Market Timing or Buy-and-Hold?”, Viktoria-Sophie Bartsch, Dirk...
View ArticleGold Return vs. Change in M2 [PREMIUM]
A subscriber requested testing of the relationship between U.S. M2 Money Stock and gold, offered in one form via “Why Gold May Be Looking Cheap”: “[O]ne measure I’ve found useful is the ratio of the...
View ArticleBest Safe Haven ETF? [PREMIUM]
A subscriber asked which exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies make the best safe havens for the U.S. stock market as proxied by the S&P 500 Index. To investigate, we consider the...
View ArticleDJIA-Gold Ratio as a Stock Market Indicator
A reader requested a test of the following hypothesis from the article “Gold’s Bluff – Is a 30 Percent Drop Next?” [no longer available]: “Ironically, gold is more than just a hedge against market...
View ArticleAny Seasonality for Gold or Gold Miners?
Do gold and gold mining stocks exhibit exploitable seasonality? Using monthly closes for spot gold and the S&P 500 Index since December 1974, PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU) since December 1983, AMEX...
View ArticleBest U.S. Equity Market Hedge Strategy? [PREMIUM]
What steps should investors consider to mitigate impact of inevitable large U.S. stock market corrections? In their May 2019 paper entitled “The Best of Strategies for the Worst of Times: Can...
View ArticleGDX and GDXJ vs. GLD [PREMIUM]
How are behaviors of physically backed gold and gold miner exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar and different? To investigate we consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) versus both Market Vectors Gold Miners...
View ArticleThe BGSV Portfolio [PREMIUM]
How might an investor construct a portfolio of very risky assets? To investigate, we consider: First, diversifying with monthly rebalancing of: Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), representing a very...
View ArticleGold Price Drivers? [PREMIUM]
What drives the price of gold: inflation, interest rates, stock market behavior, public sentiment? To investigate, we relate monthly and annual spot gold return to changes in: Non-seasonally adjusted...
View ArticleBest Bear Market Asset Class?
A subscriber asked which asset (short stocks, cash, bonds by subclass) is best to hold during equity bear markets. To investigate, we consider two ways to define a bear market: (1) months when SPDR...
View ArticleInterplay of the Dollar, Gold and Oil [PREMIUM]
What is the interplay among investable proxies for the U.S. dollar, gold and crude oil? Do changes in the value of the dollar lead those in hard assets? To investigate, we relate the return series of...
View ArticleDJIA-Gold Ratio as a Stock Market Indicator [PREMIUM]
A reader requested a test of the following hypothesis from the article “Gold’s Bluff – Is a 30 Percent Drop Next?” [no longer available]: “Ironically, gold is more than just a hedge against market...
View ArticleReal Gold Price and Future Gold Return [PREMIUM]
Does the real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold indicate future gold return? If so, what is the current indication? In their August 2020 paper entitled “Gold, the Golden Constant, COVID-19, ‘Massive...
View ArticleGDX and GDXJ vs. GLD [PREMIUM]
How are behaviors of physically backed gold and gold miner exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar and different? To investigate we consider each of Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and VanEck Vectors...
View ArticleSLV vs. GLD [PREMIUM]
How are behaviors of gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar and different? To investigate we consider iShares Silver Trust (SLV) versus SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Using daily returns for...
View ArticleGold Globally [PREMIUM]
Is gold a hedge and safe haven for other asset classes globally? In their September 2020 paper entitled “Gold as a Financial Instrument”, Pedro Gomis‐Porqueras, Shuping Shi and David Tan explore...
View ArticleAny Seasonality for Gold or Gold Miners? [PREMIUM]
Do gold and gold mining stocks exhibit exploitable seasonality? Using monthly closes for spot gold and the S&P 500 Index since December 1974, PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU) since December 1983, AMEX...
View ArticleBitcoin Displacing Gold? [PREMIUM]
Is Bitcoin beginning to displace gold as a U.S. dollar hedge? To investigate, we look at rolling correlations of returns for the following pairs of exchange-traded funds (ETF): Grayscale Bitcoin Trust...
View ArticleQQQ:IWM for Risk-on and GLD:TLT for Risk-off?
A subscriber asked about a strategy that switches between an equal-weighted portfolio of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) when the S&P 500 Index is above its 200-day...
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